{"title":"Survey respondents' inflation forecasts and the COVID period","authors":"Michael P. Clements","doi":"10.1002/for.3169","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>How do professionals forecast in uncertain times, when the relationships between variables that held in the past may no longer be useful for forecasting the future? For inflation forecasting, we answer this question by measuring survey respondents' adherence to their pre-COVID-19 Phillips curve models during the pandemic. We also ask whether professionals <i>ought</i> to have put their trust in their Phillips curve models over the COVID-19 period. We address these questions allowing for heterogeneity in respondents' forecasts and in their perceptions of the Phillips curve relationship.</p>","PeriodicalId":47835,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forecasting","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/for.3169","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Forecasting","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/for.3169","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
How do professionals forecast in uncertain times, when the relationships between variables that held in the past may no longer be useful for forecasting the future? For inflation forecasting, we answer this question by measuring survey respondents' adherence to their pre-COVID-19 Phillips curve models during the pandemic. We also ask whether professionals ought to have put their trust in their Phillips curve models over the COVID-19 period. We address these questions allowing for heterogeneity in respondents' forecasts and in their perceptions of the Phillips curve relationship.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Forecasting is an international journal that publishes refereed papers on forecasting. It is multidisciplinary, welcoming papers dealing with any aspect of forecasting: theoretical, practical, computational and methodological. A broad interpretation of the topic is taken with approaches from various subject areas, such as statistics, economics, psychology, systems engineering and social sciences, all encouraged. Furthermore, the Journal welcomes a wide diversity of applications in such fields as business, government, technology and the environment. Of particular interest are papers dealing with modelling issues and the relationship of forecasting systems to decision-making processes.
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