Predicting the Global Potential Suitable Areas of Sweet Osmanthus (Osmanthus fragrans) Under Current and Future Climate Scenarios

Abstract

Osmanthus fragrans is a valuable landscaping tree that is appreciated worldwide. However, the optimal environmental conditions for O. fragrans cultivation have yet to be studied in detail, which hinders the preservation of wild resources of this plant and its commercial exploitation. The maximum entropy model was applied to assess the significance of environment variables influencing O. fragrans distribution. Combining data from 629 global distribution points for O. fragrans, predictions were made on the potential effects of climate change on the geographical distribution of suitable habitats for this species in the present and the future. The results indicated that O. fragrans preferred a warm and humid growing environment. Under the current climatic conditions, the potential habitats for O. fragrans were mostly located in the eastern coastal areas of the continents at medium and low latitudes. The main environmental variables that affected its distribution were the precipitation during the warmest quarter, the temperature seasonality, and the mean temperature of the warmest quarter. The analysis indicated that the continuation of current trends in climate change will result in the further reduction of suitable habitats for O. fragrans growth, and the global centroid will shift to the southeast. These findings provided insight into the impact of climate change on O. fragrans habitats, as well as provide guidance for the conservation of wild resources of this species and the breeding of more climate change-resistant varieties for the future.