Analysis of Predictive Value of Cellular Inflammatory Factors and T Cell Subsets for Disease Recurrence and Prognosis in Patients with Acute Exacerbations of COPD.

Abstract

Objective: To explore the predictive value of cellular inflammatory factors and T cell subsets for disease recurrence and prognosis in patients with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

Methods: Serum samples were collected from the two groups to detect and compare the levels of inflammatory cytokines [interleukin-1β (IL-1β), interleukin-6 (IL-6), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α)], T cell subsets (CD4+, CD8+), and clinical related indicators. Pearson correlation analysis was used to analyze the correlation between inflammatory cytokines, T cell subsets, and clinical indicators. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted to analyze the predictive value of serum inflammatory factors and T cell subsets for acute exacerbations of COPD.

Results: The observation group had higher levels of IL-1β, IL-6, TNF-α, and CD8+, and lower CD4+ levels (P<0.05). The ratio of forced expiratory volume in 1 second to forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) was lower, while procalcitonin (PCT) and white blood cell count (WBC) were higher (P<0.05). Correlation analysis showed positive correlations between IL-1β, IL-6, TNF-α, and CD8+, and negative correlations with CD4+ and FEV1/FVC (P<0.05). After 6 months, 15 out of 73 patients had acute recurrences, with higher IL-1β, IL-6, TNF-α, and CD8+ levels (P<0.05). Binary logistic regression identified IL-1β, IL-6, TNF-α, and CD8+ as significant predictors of exacerbations, while CD4+ was protective. ROC analysis showed that combined biomarkers had the highest predictive efficiency (AUC = 0.907).

Conclusion: This study is the first to integrate multiple serum inflammatory factors and T cell subsets into a comprehensive predictive model for acute recurrence of COPD within six months (AUC = 0.907), offering a more accurate prediction than traditional methods. The findings underscore the value of these biomarkers in clinical follow-up and highlight their independent predictive power, providing new insights into the interaction between immune markers and clinical indicators in COPD exacerbations.