Comparative assessment of empirical random forest family's model in simulating future streamflow in different basin of Sarawak, Malaysia

IF 1.8 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics Pub Date : 2024-11-02 DOI:10.1016/j.jastp.2024.106381
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Abstract

In Sarawak, a region highly vulnerable to climate change, the translation of climate-induced changes in rainfall to river flow is non-linear, presenting a challenge for water resource managers. This research investigates the impact of climate change on hydrological processes in Sarawak, Malaysia, with a specific focus on assessing future spatiotemporal variations in streamflow. The families of Random Forest (RF) empirical models based on data mining techniques were compared and utilized to develop a continuous hydrologic model. Then, by incorporating rainfall and evapotranspiration future projection prepared based on RF past performance statistical downscaling, the top performing RF empirical hydrological model was used for future streamflow projection. The results showed that despite an expected increase in rainfall, the RFR (Random Forest by Randomization) empirical hydrological model demonstrated a potential decrease in river runoff due to heightened evapotranspiration demands associated with rising temperatures. The examination of climate-induced alterations in both rainfall and evapotranspiration patterns revealed a consistent decrease in river discharges during the early to middle period across Sarawak, followed by a shift towards an increasing trend by the end of the 21st century. The central region along the Rajang basin exhibited a prevailing decrease in river discharge, with contrasting patterns in the last part of the century. The northern region displayed diverse trends, with some basins experiencing decreases in river runoff despite augmented rainfall, emphasizing the heterogeneity in response. By employing empirical models, and projecting future scenarios, the study contributes to a better understanding of climate change impacts on hydrology in the region, essential for effective water resource management and environmental conservation.
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模拟马来西亚沙捞越州不同流域未来河水流量的经验随机森林族模型的比较评估
在沙捞越这个极易受气候变化影响的地区,由气候引起的降雨量变化对河流流量的影响是非线性的,这给水资源管理者带来了挑战。本研究调查了气候变化对马来西亚沙捞越水文过程的影响,重点是评估未来河流流量的时空变化。研究人员比较了基于数据挖掘技术的随机森林(RF)经验模型系列,并将其用于开发连续水文模型。然后,通过结合基于 RF 过去性能统计降尺度编制的降雨量和蒸散量未来预测,将性能最好的 RF 经验水文模型用于未来溪流预测。结果表明,尽管预计降雨量会增加,但 RFR(随机化随机森林)经验水文模型显示,由于气温升高导致蒸散需求增加,河流径流量可能会减少。对气候引起的降雨和蒸散模式变化的研究表明,沙捞越全境的河流排水量在早中期持续减少,到 21 世纪末则呈上升趋势。拉让盆地沿岸的中部地区的河流排水量普遍减少,在本世纪末出现了截然不同的模式。北部地区呈现出不同的趋势,一些流域尽管降雨量增加,但河流径流量却减少了,这凸显了响应的不一致性。通过采用经验模型和预测未来情景,该研究有助于更好地了解气候变化对该地区水文的影响,这对有效的水资源管理和环境保护至关重要。
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来源期刊
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
5.30%
发文量
95
审稿时长
6 months
期刊介绍: The Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics (JASTP) is an international journal concerned with the inter-disciplinary science of the Earth''s atmospheric and space environment, especially the highly varied and highly variable physical phenomena that occur in this natural laboratory and the processes that couple them. The journal covers the physical processes operating in the troposphere, stratosphere, mesosphere, thermosphere, ionosphere, magnetosphere, the Sun, interplanetary medium, and heliosphere. Phenomena occurring in other "spheres", solar influences on climate, and supporting laboratory measurements are also considered. The journal deals especially with the coupling between the different regions. Solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and other energetic events on the Sun create interesting and important perturbations in the near-Earth space environment. The physics of such "space weather" is central to the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics and the journal welcomes papers that lead in the direction of a predictive understanding of the coupled system. Regarding the upper atmosphere, the subjects of aeronomy, geomagnetism and geoelectricity, auroral phenomena, radio wave propagation, and plasma instabilities, are examples within the broad field of solar-terrestrial physics which emphasise the energy exchange between the solar wind, the magnetospheric and ionospheric plasmas, and the neutral gas. In the lower atmosphere, topics covered range from mesoscale to global scale dynamics, to atmospheric electricity, lightning and its effects, and to anthropogenic changes.
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