Simulating future cultivated land using a localized SSPs-RCPs framework: A case study in Yangtze River Economic Belt

Abstract

Simulating cultivated land changes is vital for improving decision-making in sustainable agriculture. Compared to previous studies, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSPs-RCPs) scenarios provide a comprehensive framework for integrating climate and socioeconomic factors, offering deeper insights into future cultivated land dynamics. Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) as the study area, we developed localized SSPs-RCPs scenarios and adopted Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model to simulate cultivated land changes under multiple scenarios. The findings indicate that cultivated land is predicted to decrease under all scenarios, with the SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios showing the highest and lowest decrease of 39.24% and 8.32%, respectively. By 2050, the loss of cultivated land in the upper reaches is expected to be significantly greater than that in the middle and lower reaches. Furthermore, grasslands, forests, and urban areas are the main types of land that replacing cultivated land in the YREB. The hotspots of cultivated land loss are in mountainous areas such as Sichuan, Yunnan, and Guizhou. Additionally, the gravity center of cultivated land distribution moved along the southeast to northeast, with the center of gravity shifting from Guizhou to Hunan under scenarios SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. This study offers insights into the future development of cultivated land in the YREB and highlights the significance of implementing and improving policies for its protection.