Nomogram Analysis for Predicting Response to Androgen-Receptor-Axis-Targeted Therapies in Patients With Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer

Abstract

Background

This study aimed to identify the clinical predictors for the response of patients with mCRPC to ARATs.

Materials and Methods

We retrospectively collected data on consecutive patients who were diagnosed with mCRPC and underwent ARAT treatment during this stage of the disease. Clinical parameters were obtained through medical chart reviews. ARAT failure was defined as a continuous increase in the serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level above nadir to > 2 ng/mL, accompanied by radiographic progression. ARAT failure-free survival and overall survival were assessed through Kaplan–Meier survival analysis and Cox regression survival analysis. Nomogram analysis based on significant predictors of ARAT failure-free survival was performed.

Results

In total, 319 patients with mCRPC who underwent ARAT were included. Multivariate analysis revealed that age, International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) grading, and chemotherapy-naïve status were significant predictors of ARAT failure-free survival. For overall survival, age, ISUP grading, and nadir PSA level during androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) were significant predictors. Through nomogram analysis based on age, ISUP grading, and chemotherapy-naïve status, the likelihood of ARAT duration being more or less than 1 year could be predicted.

Conclusion

For mCRPC patients, being older, having ISUP Grade 5 cancer, and having a history of chemotherapy were associated with a shorter duration of response to next-line ARATs. Therefore, other therapeutic agents should be prioritized for such patients. Notably, among the included patients, those who were older, had a higher ISUP grade and a higher nadir PSA level during ADT exhibited worse overall survival.