Are autocratic donors impeding democracy abroad? The presence of autocratic donors and citizens' perceptions of democracy

Abstract

Does the presence of autocratic donors alter citizens' perceptions of democracy? The paper argues that the presence of autocratic donors can alter citizens' views of donors' influence and support for democracy. The study analyses, on the donor side Chinese development assistance from AidData, one of the largest autocratic donors worldwide and, on the recipient side, Serbia—a middle-income country where both Western and non-traditional donors are heavily involved with aid projects. The findings suggest that in the presence of higher levels of aid from autocratic donors, citizens who uphold a very positive view of donors' political influence are the least likely to support democracy. The article proposes two main mechanisms: the attribution processes of aid and the instrumentalization of foreign aid by elites. The analysis employs a mixed-method approach, combining mixed-ordered probit regression of aid and municipal-level survey data with insights from 16 interviews with experts on Serbia who have direct experience with aid initiatives or research. The study contributes to advancing our understanding of the impact of autocratic donors on citizens' support for democracy.