Integrating temporal deep learning models for predicting screen-out risk levels in hydraulic fracturing

Abstract

Amid the transformative shift in global energy structures, the exploitation and utilization of shale gas, an essential unconventional natural gas resource, have drawn widespread attention from both industrial and academic circles. However, screen-out incidents during hydraulic fracturing operations pose significant obstacles to extraction efficiency and safety. Traditional prediction methods, which rely on empirical estimations and simplified models, are deficient in accuracy and real-time applicability. Addressing this, our study introduces a novel deep learning ensemble integrating Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), Transformer, and One-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Networks (1D-CNN) for precise screen-out prediction. This approach markedly improves predictive accuracy by efficiently processing time-series data and capturing the complex dynamics of fracturing processes. Furthermore, the application of the correlation coefficient method and random forest algorithm for feature selection optimizes model input and further enhances prediction accuracy and operational efficiency. Our comparative analysis demonstrates the model’s superiority, achieving an F1 score of 0.951 and a loss of 0.430, clearly surpassing traditional and other deep learning methods. This integration of advanced neural architectures and feature selection techniques not only advances screen-out prediction but also yields practical insights for optimizing shale gas extraction strategies and enhancing safety.