Analyzing AIS and wave hindcast data for global wave scatter diagrams with seasonality

Abstract

Global scatter diagrams are used to estimate possible ship motions in a specified route and are required for comprehensive cargo-loading considerations of merchant ships. This study aims to update global wave scatter diagrams using the latest wave hindcast and Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. The AIS data for over 7500 merchant ships were collected between 2015 and 2022. The wave hindcast data ECMWF Reanalysis v.5 (ERA5), preferred for its recent coverage, were adjusted based on CCI satellite data. The duration of the AIS data is much shorter than the design lifetime of merchant ships, which is generally 25 years. This study found almost linear relationships between the maximum significant wave heights in storms and the generalized extreme value (GEV) parameters representing the distribution of encountered significant wave heights, with adjustments made for seasonality and tropical cyclones. By simulating the parameters based on these relationships and the wave hindcast data over 25 years, the encountered significant wave height distributions over 25 years were obtained. The results indicated a reduction in extremely significant wave heights compared with the BMT-GWS, in agreement with previous studies. This study also found that the difference in the wave period distribution between natural and encountered sea states was small in most sea areas for all significant wave height levels. Taking advantage of the abundant data volume of ERA5, this study adopted an empirical distribution of the wave period conditioned by the significant wave height. The novelty of this study is that we obtained wave scatter diagrams globally by month to consider the seasonal effect in detail and evaluated the confidence interval of the encountered wave height in its probability tail. In addition, this study quantifies the uncertainty of the wave height distribution by Monte Carlo simulation, which is not within the scope of previous studies on wave scatter diagrams based on the significant wave heights encountered by merchant ships around the world.