Transitions between Chinese dynasties influenced by spatial-patterned precipitation

Abstract

Past studies have often associated the transitions of Chinese dynasties with nationwide climate change, overlooking significant spatial heterogeneity in precipitation anomalies across China. Historical changes in spatial precipitation patterns in response to Asian monsoon variability and their societal impact have not been fully explored. In this study, we present a new extended annual laminated speleothem record from central China covering the last 2000 years. By integrating paleoclimatic data from northern and southern China, we reconstructed the history of spatial precipitation patterns dominated by tripole and dipole patterns over the Common Era. Our analysis revealed that although the relationship between the monsoon and precipitation patterns was non-stationary, the positive phases of both patterns occurred more frequently during periods of monsoon weakening on multidecadal to multicentennial timescales. Moreover, the phase and intensity of these precipitation patterns varied across different intervals during the Chinese dynasties. Notably, transitions of unified dynasties often coincide with the simultaneous occurrence of the positive phases of both patterns on multidecadal timescales. This phase configuration of the patterns aligns with prolonged droughts in Eastern China, coinciding with historical records of reduced grain harvests and economic decline. Our findings highlight that historical changes in spatial configuration, rather than the nationwide synchronicity of precipitation anomalies, play a crucial role in Chinese dynastic transitions.