Recent impact of reduced arctic sea-ice on the winter North Atlantic jet stream and its quantitative contributions compared to pre-industrial level

Abstract

It has been a challenge to identify the impact of Arctic sea-ice loss on the intensity and position of the winter North Atlantic jet stream (NAJS) and the related mechanisms due to the uncertain effects of atmospheric internal variability. This study investigates the response of the winter NAJS to Arctic sea-ice loss and roughly estimates the contribution of internal variability in Arctic sea ice (ArcSIC) after the pre-industrial period, based on reanalysis dataset (referred to as observation here), the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and the Polar Amplification Model Inter-comparison Project (PAMIP). The results indicate that the majority of PAMIP models display robust but weak equatorward shift of the NAJS response to Arctic sea-ice loss, as well as robust NAJS-related circulation anomalies. Further analysis shows that the ability of models to reproduce observed NAJS response is primarily associated with tropospheric baroclinic wave activity and the troposphere–stratosphere coupling. Based on 20th-Century reanalysis data and CMIP6 historical simulations, we further estimate the relative contributions of external forcing and internal variability (including reduced ArcSIC) to NAJS latitude and speed variability. Compared to the pre-industrial period, the recent winter NAJS at 850 hPa has accelerated and shifted poleward. By calculating the ratio of the difference in NAJS speed (latitude) between the present-day and pre-industrial in CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean to the difference in observation, this study approximately estimates that the external forcing contributes about 40 % of NAJS acceleration with minimal influence on its shift. The remaining acceleration and poleward shift are mainly attributed to internal variability. The difference between the present-day and pre-industrial PAMIP ensemble mean is considered as the “pure” forcing of Arctic sea-ice loss. Most models indicate that reduced ArcSIC tends to slow down the acceleration and poleward shift of winter NAJS, but show quantitively a wide range of uncertainty.