A mixed method approach for analyzing drivers of land use land cover change in the Northwestern Ethiopian highlands

Abstract

This study gives empirical evidence on the drivers of land use change by conducting a qualitative assessment and then using time series data to quantify the relationship between land use land cover change and factors that cause the change. Vector autoregressive models with exogenous variables were used to analyze the time series data. The findings revealed demographic and environmental factors were the primary causes of land use and land cover change. Population growth was found among the key drivers for losses of the natural vegetation on the one hand and rehabilitation of bare lands and grazing lands on the other hand. Despite its pressure on the natural vegetation, the increase in population contributes to a productive labor force for improving land management through rehabilitating degraded grazing lands, implementing soil and water conservation measures, and planting trees on degraded lands. This implies that population growth can be an opportunity or a threat for sustainable natural resources management, depending on how the available labor force is used. Climatic factors like maximum temperature and precipitation were also important causes of change in land use land cover. The study has important contributions to improving land use practices through designing appropriate land resources management policies.