Spatio-temporal patterns of compound dry-hot extremes in China

IF 4.5 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2024-11-17 DOI:10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107795
Chensi Zhou , Guojie Wang , Huiyan Jiang , Shijie Li , Xiao Shi , Yifan Hu , Pedro Cabral
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Abstract

Under global warming, the simultaneous occurrence of drought and high temperature is raising growing concerns due to their detrimental impacts on ecosystems, water resources, and food security. Extensive studies have evaluated different characteristics (e.g., spatial extent and frequency) of such compound extremes using percentile-threshold methods based on historical records and climate model projections. Nevertheless, quantitative assessments of projected changes in compound dry-hot extremes based on the daily-scale compound dry-hot index which is constructed by copula theory and the latest CMIP6 downscaled projection outputs are rather rare. Based on the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6), the study first calculated the daily Standardized Compound Dry and Hot Index (SCDHI) by combining Standardized Antecedent Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SAPEI) and Standardized Temperature Index (STI) to identify compound dry-hot extremes while exploring its constraints for an accurate evaluation of its spatiotemporal evolution in China from 1961 to 2100. In this study, a reasonable threshold is determined to reduce some dry but no hot (hot but no dry) condition incorrectly identified as compound dry-hot condition. In terms of temporal variation, the study shows that all characteristics (i.e., occurrence, intensity, and area) are projected to increase over the next 80 years under the four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, SSP5–8.5). Particularly in the last 30 years of the 21st century, these features escalate significantly and rapidly, and the higher the emission scenario, the greater the escalation. From a spatial distribution perspective, we find that a more frequent occurrence of compound dry-hot days across China under the future SSPs compared to 1961–2020, with more so in Xinjiang, Tibet, Qinghai, Hainan, and Southwest China. These findings emphasize that policy makers should take relevant and timely measures to reduce social and economic losses caused by intensified projected compound dry-hot extremes.
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中国干热复合极端气候的时空模式
在全球变暖的情况下,干旱和高温同时出现,对生态系统、水资源和粮食安全造成了不利影响,这引起了越来越多的关注。大量研究基于历史记录和气候模式预测,采用百分位阈值法评估了此类复合极端现象的不同特征(如空间范围和频率)。然而,根据共轭理论构建的日尺度复合干热指数和最新的 CMIP6 降尺度预测输出结果,对复合干热极端事件的预测变化进行定量评估的研究却相当少见。本研究基于 NASA Earth Exchange 全球日尺度降尺度预测(NEX-GDDP-CMIP6),首先结合标准化前降水蒸散指数(SAPEI)和标准化温度指数(STI)计算出日尺度标准化复合干热指数(SCDHI),以识别复合干热极端值,同时探讨其约束条件,从而准确评估中国 1961~2100 年复合干热极端值的时空演变。本研究确定了一个合理的阈值,以减少一些干而不热(热而不干)的情况被错误地识别为复合干热条件。在时间变化方面,研究表明,在四种共享社会经济路径情景(SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0、SSP5-8.5)下,所有特征(即发生率、强度和面积)在未来 80 年内都将增加。特别是在 21 世纪的最后 30 年,这些特征会显著、快速地升级,而且排放情景越高,升级幅度越大。从空间分布的角度来看,我们发现与 1961-2020 年相比,未来 SSPs 下中国各地复合干热日的出现更为频繁,其中新疆、西藏、青海、海南和西南地区更为明显。这些研究结果表明,决策者应及时采取相关措施,以减少因预计复合干热极端天气加剧而造成的社会和经济损失。
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来源期刊
Atmospheric Research
Atmospheric Research 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
9.40
自引率
10.90%
发文量
460
审稿时长
47 days
期刊介绍: The journal publishes scientific papers (research papers, review articles, letters and notes) dealing with the part of the atmosphere where meteorological events occur. Attention is given to all processes extending from the earth surface to the tropopause, but special emphasis continues to be devoted to the physics of clouds, mesoscale meteorology and air pollution, i.e. atmospheric aerosols; microphysical processes; cloud dynamics and thermodynamics; numerical simulation, climatology, climate change and weather modification.
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