Climate change effects on the localized heavy rainfall event in northern Japan in 2022: Uncertainties in a pseudo-global warming approach

IF 4.5 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Atmospheric Research Pub Date : 2024-11-14 DOI:10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107780
Ryotaro Tahara, Yusuke Hiraga, So Kazama
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Abstract

This study used the pseudo-global warming (PGW) method in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to examine the effects of climate change on localized heavy rainfall events in the Tohoku and Hokuriku regions in August 2022. This heavy rainfall event is one of the representative cases of heavy rainfall in the region, in which water vapor transport from the Sea of Japan is a key factor, and its frequency and magnitude are projected to increase with climate change. Our modeling results showed that the simulated 48-h precipitation under the projected 2090s warming conditions increased by 34.6 % compared to precipitation without consideration of future warming effects. In general, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere and convection instability over the ocean increased with future warming. While the rate of increase in water vapor is generally consistent with Clausius-Clapeyron scaling (7 %/K) based on surface temperature rise, the 48-h cumulative precipitation notably exceeds this scaling rate, even larger than triple Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. This increase in precipitation is driven by a combination of thermodynamic effects—such as enhanced water vapor content with rising temperatures—and dynamic effects, including strengthened updrafts. We showed that the model domain location can significantly affect the simulated precipitation and its changes in PGW simulations. For instance, a 29.2 % change in 48-h precipitation was observed solely due to the geospatial shift of the innermost domain. This finding indicates the importance of the model domain location as a source of uncertainty in the PGW method.
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气候变化对 2022 年日本北部局部暴雨事件的影响:伪全球变暖方法的不确定性
本研究利用天气研究和预报(WRF)模型中的伪全球变暖(PGW)方法,研究了气候变化对 2022 年 8 月东北和北陆地区局部暴雨事件的影响。该暴雨事件是该地区具有代表性的暴雨事件之一,其中来自日本海的水汽输送是一个关键因素,预计其频率和强度将随着气候变化而增加。我们的模拟结果表明,在预计的 2090 年代气候变暖条件下,48 小时的模拟降水量比未考虑未来气候变暖影响的降水量增加了 34.6%。一般来说,大气中的水汽量和海洋上空的对流不稳定性会随着未来气候变暖而增加。虽然水汽的增加速度与基于地表温度上升的克劳修斯-克拉皮隆缩放比例(7%/K)基本一致,但 48 小时累积降水量明显超过了这一缩放比例,甚至大于三倍克劳修斯-克拉皮隆缩放比例。降水量的增加是由热力学效应(如水汽含量随温度上升而增加)和动力学效应(包括上升气流增强)共同驱动的。我们的研究表明,在 PGW 模拟中,模式域位置会显著影响模拟降水量及其变化。例如,仅由于最内层模式域的地理空间移动,就观测到了 48 小时降水量 29.2% 的变化。这一发现表明了模式域位置作为 PGW 方法不确定性来源的重要性。
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来源期刊
Atmospheric Research
Atmospheric Research 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
9.40
自引率
10.90%
发文量
460
审稿时长
47 days
期刊介绍: The journal publishes scientific papers (research papers, review articles, letters and notes) dealing with the part of the atmosphere where meteorological events occur. Attention is given to all processes extending from the earth surface to the tropopause, but special emphasis continues to be devoted to the physics of clouds, mesoscale meteorology and air pollution, i.e. atmospheric aerosols; microphysical processes; cloud dynamics and thermodynamics; numerical simulation, climatology, climate change and weather modification.
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