Reconstructing the Tropical Pacific Upper Ocean Using Online Data Assimilation With a Deep Learning Model

Abstract

A deep learning (DL) model, based on a transformer architecture, is trained on a climate-model data set and compared with a standard linear inverse model (LIM) in the tropical Pacific. We show that the DL model produces more accurate forecasts compared to the LIM when tested on a reanalysis data set. We then assess the ability of an ensemble Kalman filter to reconstruct the monthly averaged upper ocean from a noisy set of 24 sea-surface temperature observations designed to mimic existing coral proxy measurements, and compare results for the DL model and LIM. Due to signal damping in the DL model, we implement a novel inflation technique by adding noise from hindcast experiments. Results show that assimilating observations with the DL model yields better reconstructions than the LIM for observation averaging times ranging from 1 month to 1 year. The improved reconstruction is due to the enhanced predictive capabilities of the DL model, which map the memory of past observations to future assimilation times.