Global distribution and decline of mangrove coastal protection extends far beyond area loss

Abstract

Mangroves protect coasts from extreme weather and erosion but can be destroyed by climate change and harvesting. However, there is no consistent formulation of protective capacity that integrates key factors such as area, width, height, and health. Here, we quantified and analyzed a process-based measure of mangrove coastal protection index (MCPI) incorporating cross-shore width, canopy height, and the normalized difference vegetation index (health index). Width/area generally declined at low rates but width increases in some regions reduced MCPI. Cluster exchange network analysis from 2007 to 2019 showed an 800% increase in mangrove forests with characteristically low height, width, and MCPI. Globally, this suggests a 25% decrease in MCPI from 2007 to 2019, primarily from height/biomass change, compared to a 2% decrease in area. Relatively sheltered low-latitude high mangrove strands (>20 m) of high-MCPI appear to be resilient to destruction from cyclones. In contrast, our results highlight an alarming, widespread decline in low MCPI, particularly along coasts exposed to deep water, possibly in concert with human destruction, cyclones, and intensifying oceanic boundary currents.