Development of a nomogram to predict the probability of survival in hypopharyngeal squamous cell cancer based on systemic inflammation and nutritional indicators

Abstract

The prognostic significance of various systemic inflammatory and nutritional markers in hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (HPSCC) remains unclear. This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict survival probabilities in patients undergoing HPSCC resection surgery based on these markers, which could help in the treatment of HPSCC.

The study included data from 236 HPSCC patients. The most predictive systemic inflammatory and nutritional markers were identified through the area under the prognostic curve (AUC). Using COX regression analysis, independent risk factors were pinpointed and used to create and validate a predictive nomogram.

The cut-off values of systemic immune-inflammatory index (SII) and advanced lung cancer inflammatory index (ALI) were 27.80 and 791.35, respectively. The constructed nomogram incorporated tumor stage, age, ALI, and SII. The AUC values for 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival prediction were 0.820, 0.721, and 0.723, respectively. Calibration and decision curves demonstrated the substantial clinical utility of the model.

SII and ALI possess significant prognostic importance in HPSCC. The developed nomogram, which includes these markers, offers a practical tool for estimating patient survival probabilities, aiding physicians in clinical decision-making for high-risk patients.