Forecasting of diarrhea disease using ARIMA model in Kendari City, Southeast Sulawesi Province, Indonesia.

IF 3.4 3区综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Heliyon Pub Date : 2024-11-12 eCollection Date: 2024-11-30 DOI:10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e40247

Ramadhan Tosepu, Neneng Yulia Ningsi

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Abstract

Background: In Indonesia, diarrhea is one of the endemic diseases that often leads to death. The high number of diarrhea cases has the potential to become an extraordinary event, thus requiring more serious attention. This research aims to analyze the data on recorded cases of diarrhea in the Health Department of Kendari City from January 2016 to June 2022.

Methods: The ARIMA model, commonly referred to as ARIMA (p, d, q), is used, where p represents the autoregressive terms, d indicates the non-seasonal differences required for achieving stationarity, and q denotes the lagged forecast errors in the prediction equation. To determine the order of the autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) components included in the ARIMA model, the patterns of the plot of the auto-correlation function (ACF) and the partial auto-correlation function (PACF) were utilized. Data analysis was carried out using Minitab Release 16 software.

Results: The forecast using this model indicates a decrease in diarrhea cases over the next two years, from July 2022 to June 2024. The forecast estimates a total of 1.971 diarrhea cases from July 2022 to June 2023 and 1.255 cases from July 2023 to June 2024.

Conclusions: The incidence of diarrhea in Kendari City fluctuates every year. This forecast provides an early warning to the government to take preventive measures against diarrhea. It is hoped that this system will reduce the negative impact of diarrhea in Kendari City.

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使用 ARIMA 模型预测印度尼西亚东南苏拉威西省肯达里市的腹泻疾病。

背景：在印度尼西亚，腹泻是经常导致死亡的地方病之一。腹泻病例的高发有可能成为非常事件，因此需要更多的关注。本研究旨在分析肯达里市卫生局 2016 年 1 月至 2022 年 6 月期间记录的腹泻病例数据：采用 ARIMA 模型（通常称为 ARIMA（p、d、q）），其中 p 代表自回归项，d 表示实现静态性所需的非季节性差异，q 表示预测方程中的滞后预测误差。为了确定 ARIMA 模型中的自回归（AR）和移动平均（MA）成分的阶次，利用了自相关函数（ACF）和偏自相关函数（PACF）图的模式。数据分析使用 Minitab 第 16 版软件进行：使用该模型进行的预测表明，在 2022 年 7 月至 2024 年 6 月的未来两年内，腹泻病例将有所减少。根据预测，2022 年 7 月至 2023 年 6 月的腹泻病例总数为 1.971 例，2023 年 7 月至 2024 年 6 月的腹泻病例总数为 1.255 例：肯达里市的腹泻发病率每年都在波动。这一预测为政府采取腹泻预防措施提供了预警。希望该系统能减少腹泻对肯达里市的负面影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Heliyon MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES-

CiteScore

4.50

自引率

2.50%

发文量

2793

期刊介绍： Heliyon is an all-science, open access journal that is part of the Cell Press family. Any paper reporting scientifically accurate and valuable research, which adheres to accepted ethical and scientific publishing standards, will be considered for publication. Our growing team of dedicated section editors, along with our in-house team, handle your paper and manage the publication process end-to-end, giving your research the editorial support it deserves.