{"title":"Survival analysis of new intra-European scheduled air services","authors":"Richard Klophaus, Matthias Viehmann","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102712","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While route planning as a core issue of airline network management has received a lot of attention in academia, the same cannot be said for service closures. This paper analyzes the survival of new intra-European scheduled air services. We estimate a total of four Cox proportional hazards (PH) models with time-dependent covariates to assess the impact of airline, airport, route and service characteristics on survival probabilities, which include a stratified model by business model to estimate separate baseline hazards. The empirical analysis ends in 2019 before the COVID crisis. A key finding is that mainline carriers show a significantly increased likelihood of service discontinuation than low-cost carriers challenging the common notion of low-cost carriers’ footloose strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"123 ","pages":"Article 102712"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Air Transport Management","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699724001777","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"TRANSPORTATION","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
While route planning as a core issue of airline network management has received a lot of attention in academia, the same cannot be said for service closures. This paper analyzes the survival of new intra-European scheduled air services. We estimate a total of four Cox proportional hazards (PH) models with time-dependent covariates to assess the impact of airline, airport, route and service characteristics on survival probabilities, which include a stratified model by business model to estimate separate baseline hazards. The empirical analysis ends in 2019 before the COVID crisis. A key finding is that mainline carriers show a significantly increased likelihood of service discontinuation than low-cost carriers challenging the common notion of low-cost carriers’ footloose strategies.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Air Transport Management (JATM) sets out to address, through high quality research articles and authoritative commentary, the major economic, management and policy issues facing the air transport industry today. It offers practitioners and academics an international and dynamic forum for analysis and discussion of these issues, linking research and practice and stimulating interaction between the two. The refereed papers in the journal cover all the major sectors of the industry (airlines, airports, air traffic management) as well as related areas such as tourism management and logistics. Papers are blind reviewed, normally by two referees, chosen for their specialist knowledge. The journal provides independent, original and rigorous analysis in the areas of: • Policy, regulation and law • Strategy • Operations • Marketing • Economics and finance • Sustainability
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