Prediction of Multi-Pharmacokinetics Property in Multi-Species: Bayesian Neural Network Stacking Model with Uncertainty

Abstract

Pharmacokinetic (PK) properties of a drug are vital attributes influencing its therapeutic effectiveness, playing an important role in the drug development process. Focusing on the difficult task of predicting PK parameters, we compiled an extensive data set comprising parameters across multiple species. Building upon this groundwork, we introduced the PKStack ensemble model to predict PK parameters across diverse species. PKStack integrates a variety of base models and includes uncertainty in its predictions. We also manually collected PK data from animals as an external test set. We predicted a total of 45 tasks for nine PK parameters in five species, and in general, the prediction accuracy was better for intravenous injections, including parameters such as human V_d (R² = 0.72, RMSE = 0.31), human CL (R² = 0.52, RMSE = 0.32), and others. In addition to predictive accuracy, we also considered the interpretability of the results and the definition of the model’s application domain. Based on the findings, our model has great potential for practical applications in drug discovery.