Forecasting Alcohol-Related Liver Disease Mortality Trends in Younger Populations Using Advanced Time-Series Models: A 1999–2030 Analysis

Abstract

Objective

Alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) has emerged as a significant public health concern, particularly among younger populations. ALD remains the leading cause of alcohol-attributable deaths. This study aims to forecast ALD mortality trends up to 2030, focusing on individuals under 55 years.

Methods

We utilized data from the CDC WONDER database (1999–2022) to examine ALD-related deaths, identified by ICD-10 codes (K70.0–K70.9). Crude mortality rates (CMRs) per 100 000 were analyzed and temporal trends were assessed using annual and average annual percent changes (APC/AAPC) with empirical quantile confidence intervals. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was employed to project mortality rates until 2030, validated through time series cross-validation.

Results

From 1999 to 2022, there were 181 862 ALD-related deaths among individuals under 55, with mortality rates increasing from 3.9 per 100 000 in 1999 to 9.7 per 100 000 in 2022 (AAPC 4.66%, 95% CI: 3.90%–5.86%). Projections suggest rates will continue to rise, reaching 14.4 per 100 000 by 2030. From 1999 to 2022, the 25–34 age group experienced the highest increase, with an AAPC of 10.27% (95% CI: 9.19%–11.35%), while the 35–44 and 45–54 age groups showed more moderate increases, with AAPCs of 5.03% and 4.38%, respectively. Projections indicate an AAPC of 3.86% for ages 25–34, 3.90% for ages 35–44, and 6.17% for ages 45–54 by 2030.

Conclusion

Forecasts indicate a continued rise in ALD mortality among individuals under 55, necessitating immediate public health strategies to mitigate this trend.