[Analysis on trends of mortality rate and disease burden of liver cancer in Tianjin, China from 1999 to 2021].

Abstract

Objective: To explore the trends and distribution of liver cancer between sexes, ages, and urban-rural areas in Tianjin, China from 1999 to 2021, and provide data for targeted prevention and control strategies of liver cancer in Tianjin. Methods: Liver cancer mortality data of Tianjin during 1999-2021 were from the Tianjin population based mortality surveillance system maintained by the Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the population data of permanent Tianjin residents were from Tianjin Municipal Public Security Bureau. Liver cancer mortality, years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD), and disability adjusted life years (DALY) were calculated using the cause of death surveillance data collected by Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The distributions of these data among residents of different sexes, ages, and regions were analyzed. Segi's world standard population was used for standardization. Joinpoint regression was used for trend analysis on the mortality rate of liver cancer and the disease burden. Results: The liver cancer mortality rate in Tianjin decreased by 46.75% from 1999 to 2021, with distinct phased characteristics. From 1999 to 2010, the age-sex-standardized mortality rate (SMR) decreased from 12.62/100 000 to 11.64/100 000 with an annual percent change (APC) of -1.32% (P=0.003). From 2010 to 2021, the SMR decreased from 11.64/100 000 to 6.72/100 000 (APC=-3.89%, P＜0.001). The age-sex-standardized DALY rates(SDR) decreased by 50.63% from 1999 to 2021, also with distinct phased characteristics. From 1999 to 2010, the SDR decreased from 388.67/100 000 to 349.38/100 000 (APC=-1.35%, P=0.002). From 2010 to 2021, the SDR decreased from 349.38/100 000 to 191.88/100 000 (APC=-4.43%, P＜0.001). The liver cancer mortality rate declined most rapidly in the age group under 45 years; the APC for those under 35 years was -5.07% (P＜0.001), and for those aged 35-44 years, the APC was 0.63% (P=0.707) and -8.21% (P＜0.001) before and after 2007, respectively. Both SMR and SDR were significantly higher in males than in females (P＜0.01). Both SMR and SDR were significantly higher in urban areas than in rural areas from 1999 to 2007 (P＜0.05), but they became similar after 2008. Liver cancer DALY are predominantly YLL, accounting for 99%. The median age of liver cancer deaths in Tianjin during 1999-2021 was 64-68 years old, with males lower than females (P＜0.05), and rural areas lower than urban areas (P＜0.05), generally showing an increasing trend (1999-2014: APC=0.11%, P=0.047; 2014-2021: APC=0.51%, P=0.005). Conclusions: Liver cancer mortality rate and disease burden decreased from 1999 to 2021 in Tianjin, with an especially accelerated decline after 2010. Further efforts to reduce liver cancer mortality in Tianjin are needed, and special attention should be focused on the elderly, male, and rural residents.