A Prospective Longitudinal Study to Demonstrate the Utility of the Palliative Prognostic Index in Forecasting the Short-term Survival of Patients with Advanced Cancer in India.

Abstract

Objectives: In this study, our primary objectives were to validate the palliative prognostic index (PPI) tool in the context of palliative care for patients with advanced cancer. Specifically, we aimed to assess the accuracy of the PPI in predicting actual survival in these patients through prospective validation.

Materials and methods: To achieve our objectives, we enrolled a cohort of 227 advanced cancer patients receiving palliative care. The study population comprised 132 (58.1%) men and 95 (41.9%) women, with a median age of 52 years (Range: 20-81). Among them, 56 (24.7%) underwent chemotherapy, and 26 (11.5%) underwent palliative radiotherapy. We utilised the PPI score to categorise patients into three prognostic groups: (a) PPI score <4 indicating likely survival of more than 6 weeks; (b) PPI score 4-6 indicating likely survival shorter than 6 weeks; and (c) PPI score >6 indicating likely survival <3 weeks.

Results: Through our analysis, we found that the PPI demonstrated limited predictive capabilities, particularly for short-term survival (<3 weeks). The PPI's performance metrics included a positive predictive value of 45.24%, a negative predictive value of 100%, a sensitivity of 100.00% and a specificity of 88.94%.

Conclusion: In conclusion, our study establishes the limited reliability of the PPI in predicting short-term survival (<3 weeks) among patients in palliative care with advanced cancer. These findings underscore the PPI's potential as a valuable tool for healthcare professionals, aiding in the development of treatment plans and facilitating discussions on end-of-life care options with patients and their families. In addition, the PPI may assist healthcare professionals in identifying individuals who could benefit from more aggressive interventions or those approaching the end of life, thereby guiding the provision of additional support and care.