Municipality assessment of temperature-related mortality risks in Norway.

Abstract

Background & aim: Understanding local vulnerability to heat and cold is crucial for public health planning, yet few studies have provided a nationwide analysis of temperature-related mortality across diverse communities. This study analyses the association between ambient air temperature and non-accidental mortality across mainland Norway, using a constrained hierarchical clustering algorithm to group municipalities with similar geographic, environmental, socioeconomic, and demographic patterns.

Methods: This study analysed the association between ambient air temperature and non-accidental mortality across 356 Norwegian municipalities, using daily data from 1996 to 2018. We applied a case time series design with distributed lag non-linear models. A downscaling procedure assessed the effect of 21 vulnerability factors on temperature-related mortality risks, using Principal Components Analysis to explore heterogeneity across clusters.

Findings: Cold temperatures contributed to an estimated 3,879 deaths per year (95% CI 3,718-4,130), while heat was associated with 44 deaths annually (95%CI: 29-58). The highest heat-related mortality risk occurred in the South-East, and the highest cold-related risk in the Central-East. Greater heat-related mortality correlated with medium- to sparsely-populated areas, while higher education levels were linked to reduced vulnerability to both heat and cold.

Interpretation: By providing the first comprehensive assessment of temperature-related excess mortality and associated risk factors in Norway, our findings underscore the need for targeted, equitable health policies that integrate environmental and socioeconomic factors. These insights are essential to guide climate adaptation strategies, prioritising vulnerable rural communities and socioeconomically disadvantaged groups to mitigate future climate-related health impacts.