Deglobalization: three scenarios

Abstract

The trade developments of the first quarter of the 21st century prompt speculation on how future generations will perceive them. Will they interpret this era as one where deglobalization took root and flourished, marked by a slowdown in world trade? Or will they view it as a mere pause in globalization’s upward trajectory? The literature explores these possibilities, noting the impact of events like the Financial Crisis, COVID-19 lockdowns and the Ukraine and Gaza wars on world trade. There is disagreement over whether globalization is receding or evolving. Three scenarios offer varied perspectives, from a bleak outlook of disintegrating international relations to a more optimistic view where deglobalization is seen as a temporary setback. These scenarios highlight the complexity and uncertainty surrounding (de)globalization, emphasizing the need for interdisciplinary analysis and a nuanced understanding of global trends.