Climate warming and temporal variation in reproductive strategies in the endangered meadow viper.

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change poses a significant threat to species on the brink of extinction. Many non-avian reptiles are endangered, but uncovering their vulnerability to climate warming is challenging, because this requires analyzing the climate sensitivity of different life stages and modeling population growth rates. Such efforts are currently hampered by a lack of long-term life-history data. In this study, we used over 3 decades of mark-recapture data from a natural population of the endangered meadow viper (Vipera ursinii ursinii) to unravel the patterns of temporal variation in reproductive traits, the local climatic determinants of inter-annual variation in reproduction, and the potential buffering effects of life cycle on population growth rate. We found significant inter-annual variation in body growth, gestation length, post-parturition body condition, clutch success, and offspring traits at birth, while reproductive effort showed little temporal variation. Temperature during gestation was the most critical factor, reducing gestation length and increasing both clutch success and post-parturition body condition. In contrast, neither air humidity nor global radiation affected reproductive outcomes. This population had a negative growth rate with minimal temporal variation, indicating a rapid decline largely independent of climatic conditions. Overall, the viper's life-history traits appeared to be buffered against temporal variation in climatic conditions, with this declining population potentially benefiting on the short term from rising local temperatures.