A biomathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 in Syrian hamsters.

Abstract

When infected with SARS-CoV-2, Syrian hamsters (Mesocricetus auratus) develop moderate disease severity presenting key features of human COVID-19. We here develop a biomathematical model of the disease course by translating known biological mechanisms of virus-host interactions and immune responses into ordinary differential equations. We explicitly describe the dynamics of virus population, affected alveolar epithelial cells, and involved relevant immune cells comprising for example CD4+ T cells, CD8+ T cells, macrophages, natural killer cells and B cells. We also describe the humoral response dynamics of neutralising antibodies and major regulatory cytokines including CCL8 and CXCL10. The model is developed and parametrized based on experimental data collected at days 2, 3, 5, and 14 post infection. Pulmonary cell composition and their transcriptional profiles were obtained by lung single-cell RNA (scRNA) sequencing analysis. Parametrization of the model resulted in a good agreement of model and data. The model can be used to predict, for example, the time course of the virus population, immune cell dynamics, antibody production and regeneration of alveolar cells for different therapy scenarios or after multiple-infection events. We aim to translate this model to the human situation in the future.