The impact of cognitive bias about infectious diseases on social well-being.

Abstract

Introduction: We investigate the relationship between bias, that is, cognitive distortions about the severity of infectious disease and social well-being.

Materials and methods: First, we establish empirically the existence of bias and analyze some of its causes; specifically, during the COVID-19 pandemic. Second, we derive an integrated economic-epidemiological differential equation model from an agent-based model that combines myopic rational choice with infectious disease dynamics. Third, we characterize axiomatically a model of an ethical, impartial, eudaemonistic and individualist observer. We prove that such an observer evaluates the state of society (social welfare or social well-being) according to the utilitarian principle.

Results: We show numerically that while increased risk-perception indeed improves epidemiological outcomes such as peak of infections and total incidence, the impact on social well-being is ambiguous.

Discussion: This result urges to look beyond cases and deaths. We also discuss problematic aspects of the simplified utilitarian principle.

Conclusion: Finally, we point out three possible future research directions and highlight some critical issues that arise in the normative direction.