Global, regional, and national burden of early-onset colorectal cancer and projection to 2050: An analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

IF 3.9 3区医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Public Health Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI:10.1016/j.puhe.2024.12.011

Xinyi Li , Xueyan Xiao , Zenghong Wu , Anni Li , Weijun Wang , Rong Lin

{"title":"Global, regional, and national burden of early-onset colorectal cancer and projection to 2050: An analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021","authors":"Xinyi Li , Xueyan Xiao , Zenghong Wu , Anni Li , Weijun Wang , Rong Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.puhe.2024.12.011","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objectives</h3><div>Early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) is becoming increasingly concerning due to its impact on individuals under 50 years old. We explored the burden of EO-CRC to provide information for planning effective management and prevention strategies.</div></div><div><h3>Study design</h3><div>We conducted secondary analyses to assess the burden of EO-CRC using data from GBD 2021.</div></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><div>The incidence, prevalence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and their rates across 204 countries and territories were obtained from GBD 2021 database. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) calculation was used to assess temporal trends in these metrics. Additionally, we reported the proportion of DALYs attributable to risk factors and projected future disease burden till 2050.</div></div><div><h3>Results</h3><div>The global number of new EO-CRC cases increased from 107,310 in 1990 to 211,890 in 2021. Both age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and prevalence rate (ASPR) of EO-CRC showed overall increases over the study period (ASIR: EAPC = 0.96 (0.9–1.02), ASPR: EAPC = 1.5 (1.44–1.55)). However, a decline in ASIR and ASPR was observed in 2020 and 2021. Males consistently showed higher EO-CRC indicators compared to females. Furthermore, projections indicated that deaths and DALYs cases are likely to fluctuate but generally increase by 2050, reaching 85,602 and 4,283,093, respectively.</div></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><div>The global impact of EO-CRC has increased significantly from 1990 to 2021, revealing notable variations across SDI regions, countries, age groups, and sexes. Besides, deaths and DALYs are predicted to rise by 2050. These results highlight the importance of implementing measures to address the growing burden of EO-CRC globally.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49651,"journal":{"name":"Public Health","volume":"238 ","pages":"Pages 245-253"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9000,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Public Health","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0033350624005079","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objectives

Early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) is becoming increasingly concerning due to its impact on individuals under 50 years old. We explored the burden of EO-CRC to provide information for planning effective management and prevention strategies.

Study design

We conducted secondary analyses to assess the burden of EO-CRC using data from GBD 2021.

Methods

The incidence, prevalence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and their rates across 204 countries and territories were obtained from GBD 2021 database. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) calculation was used to assess temporal trends in these metrics. Additionally, we reported the proportion of DALYs attributable to risk factors and projected future disease burden till 2050.

Results

The global number of new EO-CRC cases increased from 107,310 in 1990 to 211,890 in 2021. Both age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and prevalence rate (ASPR) of EO-CRC showed overall increases over the study period (ASIR: EAPC = 0.96 (0.9–1.02), ASPR: EAPC = 1.5 (1.44–1.55)). However, a decline in ASIR and ASPR was observed in 2020 and 2021. Males consistently showed higher EO-CRC indicators compared to females. Furthermore, projections indicated that deaths and DALYs cases are likely to fluctuate but generally increase by 2050, reaching 85,602 and 4,283,093, respectively.

Conclusions

The global impact of EO-CRC has increased significantly from 1990 to 2021, revealing notable variations across SDI regions, countries, age groups, and sexes. Besides, deaths and DALYs are predicted to rise by 2050. These results highlight the importance of implementing measures to address the growing burden of EO-CRC globally.

查看原文

微信好友朋友圈 QQ好友复制链接

本刊更多论文

早发性结直肠癌的全球、区域和国家负担及2050年预测：基于2021年全球疾病负担研究的分析

目的：早发性结直肠癌（EO-CRC）因其对50岁以下人群的影响而越来越受到关注。我们探讨了EO-CRC的负担，为规划有效的管理和预防策略提供信息。研究设计：我们使用GBD 2021的数据进行了二次分析，以评估EO-CRC的负担。方法：从GBD 2021数据库中获取204个国家和地区的发病率、患病率、死亡率、残疾调整生命年（DALYs）及其比率。估计年百分比变化（EAPC）计算用于评估这些指标的时间趋势。此外，我们报告了可归因于风险因素的伤残调整生命年的比例，并预测了到2050年的未来疾病负担。结果：全球EO-CRC新发病例数从1990年的107310例增加到2021年的211890例。EO-CRC的年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）和患病率（ASPR）在研究期间均呈总体上升趋势(ASIR: EAPC = 0.96 （0.9-1.02), ASPR: EAPC = 1.5(1.44-1.55)）。然而，在2020年和2021年观察到ASIR和ASPR的下降。与女性相比，男性始终表现出更高的EO-CRC指标。此外，预测表明，到2050年，死亡人数和残疾调整生命年病例可能会波动，但总体上会增加，分别达到85 602人和4 283 093人。结论：从1990年到2021年，全球EO-CRC的影响显著增加，显示出SDI地区、国家、年龄组和性别之间的显著差异。此外，预计到2050年，死亡人数和伤残调整寿命将会上升。这些结果突出了在全球范围内采取措施解决日益严重的eoc - crc负担的重要性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文去求助

来源期刊

Public Health 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生

CiteScore

7.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

280

审稿时长

37 days

期刊介绍： Public Health is an international, multidisciplinary peer-reviewed journal. It publishes original papers, reviews and short reports on all aspects of the science, philosophy, and practice of public health.