Comparing extreme rainfall exposure to climate-focused planning efforts: A mixed methods analysis in the northeastern United States

Abstract

This paper analyzes the motivation for climate planning at the local level in three states in the northeastern United States. Cataloging climate-focused plans in 461 coastal and riverine municipalities in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut we compare these efforts to the incidence of extreme precipitation from 2000 to 2021 based on climatologies of precipitation derived from a large-scale meteorological dataset. Localities' experience with extreme precipitation and their climate planning status is also compared with a selection of socio-demographic indicators. For the region analyzed, climate-focused planning is relatively rare, but coastal communities experienced more frequent extreme precipitation events and appear to have engaged in more climate-focused planning relative to riverine communities and also are more likely to cite scientific evidence of climate change as justification for planning. Notably, some coastal communities engaged in climate-related planning despite having a higher proportion of Republican voters, who are typically more conservative and skeptical of both climate change and public policy efforts to address it. Finally, some storms, even when not climatologically extreme, nonetheless leave a lasting impression because of their impacts. These have significant implications for local efforts to address climate challenges, showing how extreme climatological events may drive government decisions and highlighting additional factors that may also amplify or impede planning for climate change.