Evaluating the impact of fertilizer and crop prices on phosphorus concentrations in Great Lakes watersheds

Sampriti Sarkar, Preet Lal, Molly Sears, Frank Lupi
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Abstract

Crop and input prices affect agricultural production and water pollution. Fertilizer prices fluctuated over the past two decades, recently increasing substantially. Corn prices also increased after authorization of the Renewable Fuel Standard. This paper estimates the effect of fertilizer and corn prices on total phosphorus (TP) and dissolved phosphorus (DP) concentrations across 226 Great Lakes region watersheds. Findings indicate that a 10% rise in fertilizer prices reduces TP by 3% and DP by 6.9%. Counterfactual analysis shows that without recent fertilizer price hikes, nutrient concentrations would be higher, underscoring the impact of crop and input prices on phosphorus pollution.

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评估化肥和作物价格对五大湖流域磷浓度的影响
农作物和投入价格影响农业生产和水污染。化肥价格在过去二十年中波动,最近大幅上涨。可再生燃料标准获得批准后,玉米价格也有所上涨。本文估算了化肥和玉米价格对大湖区226个流域总磷(TP)和溶解磷(DP)的影响。研究结果表明,化肥价格上涨10%,总磷和生产总值分别下降3%和6.9%。反事实分析表明,如果近期化肥价格没有上涨,养分浓度会更高,这凸显了作物和投入价格对磷污染的影响。
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