Interleukin-6 and thyroid-stimulating hormone index predict plaque stability in carotid artery stenosis: analyses by lasso-logistic regression.

Abstract

Objective: To develop and validate a new prediction model based on the Lass-logistic regression with inflammatory serologic markers for the assessment of carotid plaque stability, providing clinicians with a reliable tool for risk stratification and decision-making in the management of carotid artery disease.

Methods: In this study, we retrospectively collected the data of the patients who underwent carotid endarterectomy (CEA) from 2019 to 2023 in Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital. Demographic characteristics, vascular risk factors, and the results of preoperative serum biochemistry were measured and collected. The risk factors for vulnerable carotid plaque were analyzed. A Lasso-logistic regression prediction model was developed and compared with traditional logistic regression models. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) were used to evaluate the performance of three models.

Results: A total of 131 patients were collected in this study, including 66 (50.4%) in the vulnerable plaque group and 65 (49.6%) in the stable plaque group. The final Lasso-logistic regression model included 4 features:IL-6, TSH, TSHI, and TT4RI; AIC = 161.6376, BIC = 176.0136, both lower than the all-variable logistic regression model (AIC = 181.0881, BIC = 261.5936), and the BIC was smaller than the stepwise logistic regression model (AIC = 154.024, BIC = 179.9007). Finally, the prediction model was constructed based on the variables screened by the Lasso regression, and the model had favorable discrimination and calibration.

Conclusions: The noninvasive prediction model based on IL-6 and TSHI is a quantitative tool for predicting vulnerable carotid plaques. It has high diagnostic efficacy and is worth popularizing and applying.