Number needed to isolate - a new population health metric to quantify transmission reductions from isolation interventions for infectious diseases.

IF 3.2 2区医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Population Health Metrics Pub Date : 2024-12-23 DOI:10.1186/s12963-024-00360-y

Aaron Prosser, Bartosz Helfer, David L Streiner

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Abstract

Background: We have previously developed and reported on a procedure for estimating the purported benefits of immunity mandates using a novel variant of the number needed to treat (NNT) which we called the number needed to isolate (NNI). Here we demonstrate its broader properties as a useful population health metric.

Main body: The NNI is analogous to the number needed to treat (NNT = 1/ARR), except the absolute risk reduction (ARR) is the absolute transmission risk in a specific population. The NNI is the number of susceptible hosts in a population who need to be isolated to prevent one transmission event from them. The properties and utility of the NNI were modeled using simulated data and its model predictions were validated using real world data. The properties of the NNI are described for three categories of data from a previous study on transmissibility of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2): (1) in different settings, (2) after a specific exposure and (3) depending on symptomaticity status of susceptible hosts.

Conclusions: We provide a demonstration of the utility of the NNI as a valuable population health metric to quantify the transmission reductions from isolation interventions.

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需要隔离的人数——一种新的人口健康指标，用于量化传染病隔离干预措施减少传播的情况。

背景：我们以前已经开发并报告了一种程序，使用治疗所需数量（NNT）的一种新变体，我们称之为隔离所需数量（NNI），来估计免疫授权的所谓益处。在这里，我们展示了它作为一个有用的人口健康指标的更广泛的特性。正文：NNI类似于治疗所需的数字（NNT = 1/ARR），但绝对风险降低（ARR）是特定人群中的绝对传播风险。NNI是指人群中需要隔离以防止一次传播事件的易感宿主的数量。使用模拟数据对NNI的属性和效用进行了建模，并使用真实世界的数据对其模型预测进行了验证。NNI的特性描述了来自先前关于严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2 （SARS-CoV-2）传播性研究的三类数据：(1)在不同环境中，(2)在特定暴露后，(3)取决于易感宿主的症状状态。结论：我们展示了NNI作为一种有价值的人群健康指标的效用，可以量化隔离干预措施减少的传播。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Population Health Metrics PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-

CiteScore

6.50

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

29 weeks

期刊介绍： Population Health Metrics aims to advance the science of population health assessment, and welcomes papers relating to concepts, methods, ethics, applications, and summary measures of population health. The journal provides a unique platform for population health researchers to share their findings with the global community. We seek research that addresses the communication of population health measures and policy implications to stakeholders; this includes papers related to burden estimation and risk assessment, and research addressing population health across the full range of development. Population Health Metrics covers a broad range of topics encompassing health state measurement and valuation, summary measures of population health, descriptive epidemiology at the population level, burden of disease and injury analysis, disease and risk factor modeling for populations, and comparative assessment of risks to health at the population level. The journal is also interested in how to use and communicate indicators of population health to reduce disease burden, and the approaches for translating from indicators of population health to health-advancing actions. As a cross-cutting topic of importance, we are particularly interested in inequalities in population health and their measurement.