Associated Factors of Long-Term Functional Outcome and Recovery Pattern After Intracerebral Hemorrhage: A Prospective Population-Based Study in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.

Abstract

Background: Long-term patterns of functional outcome after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) have not been well elucidated in population-based studies from low- and middle-income countries. The aim of this study was to define long-term functional outcomes, associated prognostic factors, and recovery patterns for patients with acute ICH.

Methods: We conducted a prospective population-based stroke incidence study in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, with prospective follow-up. Multiple overlapping strategies were used to prospectively ascertain all strokes over 2 years. Patients were followed up at 28, 90, and 365 days. Associated factors of unfavorable outcome (defined as modified Rankin Scale scores, 3-6) and death at 365 days were identified using separate binary logistic regressions. Recovery pattern in terms of the proportions of patients with favorable outcomes (defined as modified Rankin Scale scores, 0-2) as the outcome was analyzed over time at 28, 90, and 365 days using generalized estimating equations with baseline covariates.

Results: A total of 1172 first-ever ICH cases were registered. Among these patients, 625 (56.4% of available modified Rankin Scale) cases had died and 853 (77.0%) had an unfavorable outcome at 365 days. The proportion of favorable outcomes increased from 12.1% at day 28 to 17.4% at day 90 and then to 23.0% at 1 year. Multivariable analysis revealed that older age, low socioeconomic status, absence of hypertension, hospital admission, neurosurgical intervention, and ICH severity, side, and intraventricular extension were independently associated with death/unfavorable outcome 365 days post-ICH. Most of these factors were also associated with the recovery pattern.

Conclusions: The prognosis from ICH in low- and middle-income countries is dismal, with 56% of patients dead and 77% having an unfavorable functional outcome at 365 days, although there was a pattern of continuous recovery over this time period. These findings stress the importance of developing effective primary prevention and continuous active care for survivors to reduce the burden of ICH in low- and middle-income countries.