Kolařík L., Horáková D., Vlčková J., Matoušková I.: Epidemiological situation of Hodgkin's lymphoma with predictive modeling of global incidence and mortality in 2040.

Abstract

The aim of the work: The aim of our work was to describe the current epidemiological situation of Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL) with a possible global prediction for the year 2040.

Methods: We obtained data on incidence and mortality of HL using the GLOBOCAN database. The rating was done specifically for men and women and together, with an age range of 0-85+ years. For the possibility of international comparison, the data are evaluated in the format of age standardized incidence/mortality (Age Standardized Rate - ASR) related to the world population - ASR (W).

Results: In the period 2000-2010, the incidence of the lowest values in the male population in Sweden reached 1.90 ASR (W), the highest values reached 3.45 ASR (W) in Italy. In the female population, the lowest incidence was reported in Malta 1.63 ASR (W), the highest in Italy 3.34 ASR (W). The lowest mortality in the male population was reported in Norway at 0.21 ASR (W), the highest value was in Bulgaria at 0.85 ASR (W). In the female population, the lowest mortality value was reported in Iceland 0.09 ASR (W), the highest value in Poland 0.43 ASR (W). In 2040, 19,788 new cases of HL will be reported in Europe (104,317 in the world), the number of deaths will be 4,633 deaths in 2040 (34,237 in the world).

Conclusion: HL in Europe shows a continuously increasing trend of incidence in the prescription period 2000-2010, but continuously decreasing trend in mortality. In 2020, within Europe, the lowest incidence value was reported in Central and Eastern Europe, the highest incidence value was reported in Southern Europe. In the same year, the lowest value of mortality was reported in Western Europe, the highest value was reported in Central and Eastern Europe. Modeling the epidemiology of the disease for the world for the year 2040 is important, as the disease will continue to be more common in the male population in the future.