Impact of delayed adoption of novel atrial fibrillation treatments.

Abstract

Objective: To examine the relationship between adoption of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) and health and cost outcomes for patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation.

Study design: Real-world cohort study.

Methods: US adults who newly initiated treatment for nonvalvular atrial fibrillation were identified from claims data. DOAC adoption and stroke rates were assessed at metropolitan statistical area (MSA) and individual levels. The MSA-level cross-sectional analysis examined the relationship between the adoption rate of a DOAC (vs warfarin) and an ischemic stroke. The individual-level instrumental variable analysis examined the impact of treatment choice predicted by regional adoption on stroke within 1 year after treatment initiation. Results were extrapolated to estimate the strokes and costs averted by patients moving from a slow-adopting (10th percentile) MSA to a rapid-adopting (90th percentile) MSA.

Results: DOAC uptake rates in MSAs at the 10th and 90th uptake percentile were 53.1% and 78.5%, respectively, in 2014. Overall DOAC uptake increased from 66.3% in 2014 to 91.4% in 2018. Increased DOAC adoption reduced average stroke rates by 1.41 percentage points or 63.2% (P = .002) using the MSA-level descriptive analysis and 1.08 percentage points or 71.2% (P = .002) using the individual-level instrumental variable analysis. Nationally, shifting DOAC rates from those seen in slow-adopting MSAs to those seen in rapid-adopting MSAs could avert up to 32,000 strokes and save up to $1.04 billion annually.

Conclusions: More rapid adoption of newly approved nonvalvular atrial fibrillation treatments was associated with reduced stroke rates and high cost savings. Managed care organizations should consider how delays in the uptake of innovative medications impact health and economic outcomes.