Assessment of future habitat suitability and ecological vulnerability of Collichthys at population and species level.

Abstract

Background: Global warming and extreme weather events driven by greenhouse gas emissions are significantly impacting fish survival and reproduction, leading to dramatic consequences for marine biodiversity and ecosystem stability. Comparative analysis of closely related species from a phylogenetic perspective provides valuable insights for biodiversity conservation efforts. The study investigates the effects of climate change on the suitability of habitat and ecological vulnerability of two important sibling fishes, Collichthys lucidus and Collichthys niveatus, in the western Pacific.

Results: This study found that the main driver of ecological niche differences between the two species is the niche contraction of C. niveatus. Predictions from species distribution models indicate that C. lucidus has a wider distribution and greater adaptability under future climate scenarios. Both species will experience significant habitat loss and heightened ecological vulnerability in the southern Yellow Sea. Additionally, the two populations of C. lucidus in the Yangtze River estuary display different levels of ecological vulnerability. These two species also exhibit distinct responses to environmental factors such as temperature and chlorophyll concentration.

Conclusion: The study's findings indicate that climate change will accelerate the population differentiation of C. lucidus and the habitat loss of C. niveatus. These results underscore the importance of prioritizing the southern Yellow Sea in future research and emphasize the necessity of developing adaptive conservation strategies for both species.