HIV Trends in Metropolitan US Cities From 2014 to 2021: Baseline Data for the Ending the HIV Epidemic Initiative.

Abstract

Objective. To examine baseline trends for the 2019 Ending the HIV Epidemic in the United States (EHE), which aims to reduce HIV incidence by 90% by 2030 in the 57 counties and states responsible for half of incident infections, and to provide a counterfactual comparator for future evaluation of the initiative's midpoint. Methods. We used 2014‒2021 metropolitan statistical area (MSA) data to compare HIV diagnostic rate trends between MSAs subsuming EHE regions (n = 46) and other MSAs (n = 76). A difference-in-difference analysis illustrated potential early-stage programmatic effects. Results. From 2014 to 2021 across 122 MSAs, 305 413 HIV cases were diagnosed with a mean annual MSA-level diagnostic rate change of ‒6.7% (range = ‒66.1‒466.7%). MSA-level diagnostic rate changed by ‒21.3% (range = ‒50.8%‒14.8%) amongst MSAs including EHE regions and by 2.1% (range = ‒66.1%‒466.7%) in other MSAs. In a difference-in-difference analysis, the HIV diagnostic rate change from 2020 to 2021 was 3.1 cases per 100 000 people-years (P = .03) greater in EHE regions compared to the baseline HIV diagnostic rate change of ‒0.8 cases per 100 000 people-years (P < .01) across all MSAs. Conclusions. Although MSAs including EHE regions experienced greater reductions in HIV diagnoses from 2014 to 2021, high interregional variability requires exploration. These trends provide a baseline for subsequent EHE programmatic evaluations. (Am J Public Health. 2025;115(2):217-220. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2024.307890).