Development and validation of a risk prediction model for acute kidney injury in coronary artery disease.

Abstract

Background: Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) is a sudden and often reversible condition characterized by rapid kidney function reduction, posing significant risks to coronary artery disease (CAD) patients. This study focuses on developing accurate predictive models to improve the early detection and prognosis of AKI in CAD patients.

Methods: We used Electronic Health Records (EHRs) from a nationwide CAD registry including 54 429 patients. Initially, univariate analysis identified potential predictors. Subsequently, a stepwise multivariate logistic model integrated clinical significance and data distribution. To refine predictor selection, we applied a random forest algorithm. The top 10 variables, including admission to the surgical department, EGFR, hemoglobin, and others, were incorporated into a logistic regression-based prediction model. Model performance was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) and calibration analysis, and a nomogram was developed for practical application.

Results: During hospitalization, 2,112 (3.88%) patients in the overall population of both the development and validation groups experienced AKI within 30 days. The final prediction model exhibited strong discrimination with an AUC of 0.867 (95% CI: 0.858 to 0.876) and well calibration capability in both the development and validation groups. Key predictors included surgical department admission, eGFR, hemoglobin, chronic kidney disease history, male sex, white blood cell count, age, left ventricular ejection fraction, acute myocardial infarction at admission, and congestive heart failure history. Bootstrap resampling confirmed model stability (Harrell's optimism-correct AUC = 0.866). The nomogram provided a practical tool for AKI risk assessment.

Conclusion: This study introduced a refined AKI risk prediction model for CAD patients. This model showed adaptability to subgroups and held the potential for early AKI alerts and personalized interventions, thereby enhancing patient care.