A quantification method of dynamic miscommunication based on the Markov process within subway teams.

Abstract

A qualitative analysis of the communication process of subway teams was performed from the perspective of cognitive psychology in this study. The findings revealed that the communication process exhibited characteristics consistent with a Markov process, and then a model was approved to calculate the probability of miscommunication based on Markov processes. As communication within subway teams is a two-way process, a model for the dynamic probability of miscommunication based on the Markov two-way communication mode was derived. The model was subsequently validated through a case study involving a screen door fault event. The research results indicate that the actual cognitive communication process yields a significantly lower probability of miscommunication compared to the values obtained from the technique for human error rate prediction (THERP) manual. This demonstrates the effectiveness of dynamic two-way communication as a means of reducing miscommunication and confirms the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed calculation model.