Metaheuristic-driven enhancement of categorical boosting algorithm for flood-prone areas mapping

Abstract

Managing and controlling costly natural hazards such as floods has been a fundamental and essential issue for decision-makers and planners from the past to the present. Artificial intelligence (AI) has recently proven promising to improve disaster management. There is growing interest in using AI to predict and identify flood-prone areas. However, creating accurate flood susceptibility maps with AI remains a significant challenge. Therefore, the present work endeavors to cope with this gap and produce the most efficient flood susceptibility maps employing Categorical Boosting (CatBoost) algorithms and three system-based metaheuristic methods, including Augmented Artificial Ecosystem Optimization (AAEO), Germinal Center Optimization (GCO), and Water Circle Algorithm (WCA). We selected Jahrom County, Iran, to develop machine learning-based models as our case study. We used 13 flood conditioning geophysical factors as input parameters and flood occurrence (binary classification), derived from satellite imagery, as the output. Our results show that CatBoost-AAEO performs better in flood susceptibility mapping than the other combined models, CatBoost-WCA, CatBoost-GCO, and the basic CatBoost model, which are mentioned in descending order of performance. The partial Dependence Plots (PDP) approach is used to interpret the results of the developed algorithms, highlighting that low slope, low elevation, minimal vegetation cover, flat curvature, and proximity to rivers significantly impact the performance of ML models to predict flood occurrence. The findings of this research can help planners manage and prevent floods and avoid development in sensitive areas to reduce financial losses caused by floods.