Global, regional, and national burden of early-onset colorectal cancer from 1990 to 2021: a systematic analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021.

IF 7 1区医学 Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL BMC Medicine Pub Date : 2025-01-21 DOI:10.1186/s12916-025-03867-9

Yang Meng, Zongbiao Tan, Junhai Zhen, Di Xiao, Liwei Cai, Weiguo Dong, Changzheng Chen

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Abstract

Background: To provide estimates and trends for burdens of early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) from 1990 to 2021 at the global, regional, and national levels, and to provide projections of EOCRC burden through 2030.

Methods: A trend analysis based on the Global Burden of Diseases 2021. The joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trends on EOCRC burden by calculating the corresponding average annual percent changes (AAPCs). A decomposition analysis was used to understand the drivers of the changes in EOCRC burden. The relationship between socio-demographic index (SDI) and disease burden was assessed by the concentration index of inequality. In addition, we constructed a Bayesian age-period-cohort model to predict the burden of EOCRC worldwide from 2022 to 2030.

Results: Globally, the burden of EOCRC increased significantly between 1990 and 2021, with the incidence rising from 5.43/100000 to 6.13/100000 (AAPC = 0.39), and the prevalence increasing from 29.65/100000 to 38.86/100000 (AAPC = 0.87). Over the same period, the death rate decreased from 2.98/100000 to 2.30/100000 (AAPC = - 0.84), whereas the disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) decreased from 148.46/100000 to 115.42/100000 (AAPC = - 0.82). In 2021, East Asia and China had the highest burden of EOCRC regionally and nationally. Decomposition analysis indicated the increase in EOCRC burden was mainly driven by population growth. The concentration index revealed that high-SDI countries had a greater burden of EOCRC than low-SDI countries. The global incidence and prevalence of EOCRC will rise continuously from 2022 to 2030.

Conclusions: Between 1990 and 2021, the incidence and prevalence of EOCRC have escalated, whereas the death rate and DALY rate have declined. The burden varied with sex, SDI, and geographical locations. Given the rising trend of EOCRC burden, coordinated efforts are needed to reduce the burden posed by this malignancy.

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1990 - 2021年全球、地区和国家早发性结直肠癌负担：基于2021年全球疾病负担研究的系统分析

背景：提供1990年至2021年全球、地区和国家层面早发性结直肠癌（EOCRC）负担的估计和趋势，并提供到2030年的EOCRC负担预测。方法：基于2021年全球疾病负担的趋势分析。采用结合点回归模型计算相应的年平均变化百分数，分析了生态环境污染负担的时间变化趋势。通过分解分析，了解了EOCRC负荷变化的驱动因素。用不平等集中指数评价社会人口指数与疾病负担的关系。此外，我们构建了贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型来预测2022 - 2030年全球EOCRC负担。结果：1990 - 2021年，全球EOCRC负担显著增加，发病率从5.43/10万上升至6.13/10万（AAPC = 0.39），患病率从29.65/10万上升至38.86/10万（AAPC = 0.87）。同期，死亡率从2.98/100000下降到2.30/100000 (AAPC = - 0.84)，伤残调整生命年（DALY）从148.46/100000下降到115.42/100000 （AAPC = - 0.82）。2021年，东亚和中国地区和国家的EOCRC负担最高。分解分析表明，人口增长是导致EOCRC负担增加的主要原因。浓度指数显示，高sdi国家的EOCRC负担高于低sdi国家。从2022年到2030年，EOCRC的全球发病率和患病率将持续上升。结论：1990年至2021年间，EOCRC的发病率和流行率上升，而死亡率和DALY率下降。这种负担因性别、SDI和地理位置而异。鉴于EOCRC负担呈上升趋势，需要采取协调一致的努力来减轻这种恶性肿瘤造成的负担。

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来源期刊

BMC Medicine 医学-医学：内科

CiteScore

13.10

自引率

1.10%

发文量

435

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： BMC Medicine is an open access, transparent peer-reviewed general medical journal. It is the flagship journal of the BMC series and publishes outstanding and influential research in various areas including clinical practice, translational medicine, medical and health advances, public health, global health, policy, and general topics of interest to the biomedical and sociomedical professional communities. In addition to research articles, the journal also publishes stimulating debates, reviews, unique forum articles, and concise tutorials. All articles published in BMC Medicine are included in various databases such as Biological Abstracts, BIOSIS, CAS, Citebase, Current contents, DOAJ, Embase, MEDLINE, PubMed, Science Citation Index Expanded, OAIster, SCImago, Scopus, SOCOLAR, and Zetoc.