Impact of human intervention and predator-prey dynamics on ecosystem virus transmission.

Abstract

Humans and predators occupy dominant positions in ecosystems and are generally believed to play a decisive role in maintaining ecosystem stability, particularly in the context of virus transmission. However, this may not always be the case. By establishing some ecosystem virus transmission models that cover both human perspectives and predators, we have drawn the following conclusions: (1) Controlling vaccination activities from the human perspective can potentially lower the transmission rate and improve herd immunity, thereby indirectly protecting unvaccinated risk groups. (2) In the ecosystem, the human perspective does not always determine the spread of viruses. Once the ecological balance between predators and prey is disrupted, there may be scenarios where predator populations die out, prey populations overpopulate, or both predators and prey go extinct. In such cases, the spread of the virus has little impact, and the system cannot restore itself to a new equilibrium state. In this case, even if humans intervene, it is difficult to change the fate of species extinction. (3) In situations where predator and prey populations maintain a stable state, human attitudes and actions are particularly critical. Human intervention can directly affect the transmission rate of the virus and the recovery rate of hosts, thereby rapidly reducing the infection rate and mitigating the harm caused by the virus. If humans do not intervene, predators may remain infected for a long time, thereby posing a serious threat to the ecosystem.