Estimates of the burden of skin melanoma in Italy: update to 2024.

Abstract

Background: The epidemiology of skin melanoma (SM) is rapidly changing. Therefore, we aimed at updating up to 2024 the Italian estimates on SM providing the number of incident and prevalent cases, the deaths and the distribution by stage at diagnosis.

Methods: Incidence was extrapolated from age- and sex-specific International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) estimates from 2022 to 2025. For mortality, we applied to the most recent observed deaths, the average sex- and age-specific annual percent change estimated by the IARC from 2022 to 2025. Regarding SM prevalence, we assumed the age- and sex-specific annual change in the number of prevalent cases observed from 2010 to 2020 to be stable until 2024. Finally, we applied the average distribution by TNM-8 stages of four population-based SM series to provide a possible stage distribution at diagnosis.

Results: We estimated almost 13,800 newly diagnosed SMs (54% men and 82% people older than 44 years), 2240 deaths (60% men and 49% people older than 74 years) and about 216,000 prevalent cases (51% women). At diagnosis, around 10,240 cases are expected to be stage I, 2120 stage II, 1100 stage III and 327 stage IV. As regards stage I 79% will be IA. Among stage II we expect 44% IIA, 33% IIB and 22% IIC. Among stage III, 49% case are expected to be IIIC.

Conclusions: These estimates allow clinicians and policymakers to quantify and properly address the burden of SM patients' diagnostic, therapeutic and supportive needs.