Prognostic performance of bedside tests for predicting ulcer healing and wound healing after minor amputation in patients prone to medial arterial calcification: A systematic review.

Abstract

Foot ulceration is a significant and growing health problem worldwide, particularly due to rises in diabetes mellitus (DM) and peripheral artery disease. The prediction of ulcer healing remains a major challenge. In patients with foot ulcers, medial arterial calcification (MAC) can be present as a result of concomitant DM or chronic kidney disease and is a prognostic factor for unfavorable outcome. This systematic review aimed to evaluate the prognostic reliability of bedside tests to predict ulcer healing and wound healing after minor amputation in patients prone to MAC, following PRISMA guidelines. Primary endpoints were the positive and negative likelihood ratios for ulcer healing. Methodological quality and risk of bias were assessed using the QUIPS-tool. A total of 35 studies were included, predominantly investigating transcutaneous oxygen pressure (TcPO₂), followed by ankle-brachial index and toe pressure. None of these bedside tests effectively provided an acceptable trade-off between predicting healing and nonhealing. A TcPO₂ below 30 mmHg was most closely associated with nonhealing of an ulcer. The same applied to wound healing after minor amputation, in which none of the bedside tests was able to sufficiently predict healing or nonhealing. To conclude, currently used bedside tests lack acceptable prognostic performance for ulcer healing and healing after minor amputation in patients prone to MAC. Future prospective studies should establish a clear definition of ulcer healing, utilize a standardized wound classification system, and minimize patient heterogeneity. A combined assessment of microvascular and macrovascular perfusion status could improve the prediction of wound healing.