The Current and Future Burden of Long COVID in the United States (U.S.)

Abstract

Background Long COVID, which affects an estimated 44.69-48.04 million people in the U.S., is an ongoing public health concern that will continue to grow as SARS-CoV-2 continues to spread. Methods We developed a computational simulation model representing the clinical course, the health effects, and the associated costs of a person with Long COVID. Results Simulations show that the average total cost of a Long COVID case can range from $5,084-$11,646 (assuming symptoms only last 1 year) with 92.5%-95.2% of these costs being productivity losses. Therefore, the current number of Long COVID cases could end up costing society at least $2.01-$6.56 billion, employers at least $1.99-$6.49 billion in productivity losses, and third-party payers $21-68.5 million annually (6%-20% probability of developing Long COVID). These cases would accrue 35,808-121,259 QALYs lost and 13,484-45,468 DALYs. Moreover, each year, there may be an additional $698.5 million in total costs, 14,685 QALYs lost, and 5,628 DALYs, if the incidence of COVID is 100 per 10,000 persons (similar to that seen in 2023). Every 10-point increase in COVID incidence results in an additional $365 million in total costs, 5,070 QALYs lost, and 1,900 DALYs each year. Conclusion The current health and economic burden of Long COVID may already exceed that of a number of other chronic disease and will continue to grow each year as there are more and more COVID-19 cases. This could be a significant drain on businesses, third party payers, the healthcare system, and all of society.