External validation of a CT score for predicting ischaemia in adhesive small-bowel obstruction.

Abstract

Objectives: To assess the diagnostic accuracy, in a validation cohort, of a score based on three CT items, which has shown good performance for predicting ischaemia complicating acute adhesive small-bowel obstruction (SBO).

Methods: This retrospective single-centre study of diagnostic accuracy included consecutive patients admitted for acute adhesive SBO in 2015-2022, who were treated conservatively or underwent surgery within 24 h after CT. The gold standard for ischaemia was an intraoperative diagnosis for operated patients, while the absence of ischaemia was confirmed either by its absence during surgery or by clinical follow-up in patients who did not undergo surgery. Three radiologists independently assessed the three score items, namely, decreased bowel-wall enhancement, diffuse mesenteric haziness, and closed-loop mechanism. Inter-observer agreement was evaluated by computing Fleiss' kappa. The diagnostic performance characteristics of the score were computed.

Results: Of the 164 patients analysed (median age, 70 [57-80] years; 88 [54%] males), 57 (34.8%) had surgery, including 41 (71.9%) with intra-operative evidence of bowel ischaemia, whereas 107 (65.2%) were treated conservatively. A score ≥ 2/3 had a sensitivity of 78% (95% CI: 62-89%), a specificity of 97% (95% CI: 92-99%), a positive predictive value of 89% (95% CI: 74-97%), and a positive likelihood ratio of 24 (95% CI: 9.03-63.79). Adding increased unenhanced bowel-wall attenuation and requiring ≥ 2/4 items did not improve score performance. Fleiss' kappa values indicated moderate to substantial agreement between observers: 0.64 [0.56-0.73] for decreased bowel-wall enhancement, 0.57 [0.48-0.66] for diffuse mesenteric haziness, and 0.68 [0.59-0.76] for closed-loop mechanism.

Conclusions: The results of this external validation study support the reproducibility and good diagnostic performance of the score based on three CT items for predicting bowel ischaemia complicating acute adhesive SBO.

Key points: Question The Millet score with three enhanced CT items for predicting bowel ischaemia complicating acute adhesive SBO has not been assessed in an external validation cohort. Findings Adding "increased unenhanced bowel-wall attenuation" to the "decreased bowel-wall enhancement", "diffuse mesenteric haziness", and "closed-loop mechanism" items did not improve score performance. Clinical relevance In an external validation cohort, a score based on three CT items performed well for predicting ischaemia in patients with acute adhesive SBO and showed acceptable inter-observer agreement. This score may help identify patients for surgery.