Quantifying the shift of public export finance from fossil fuels to renewable energy

IF 15.7 1区 综合性期刊 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Nature Communications Pub Date : 2025-01-29 DOI:10.1038/s41467-025-55981-0
Philipp Censkowsky, Paul Waidelich, Igor Shishlov, Bjarne Steffen
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Abstract

By providing guarantees and direct lending, public export credit agencies (ECAs) de-risk and thus enable energy projects worldwide. Despite their importance for global greenhouse gas emission pathways, a systematic assessment of ECAs’ role and financing patterns in the low-carbon energy transition is still needed. Using commercial transaction data, here we analyze 921 energy deals backed by ECAs from 31 OECD and non-OECD countries (excluding Canada) between 2013 and 2023. We find that while the share of renewables in global ECA energy commitments rose substantially between 2013 and 2023, ECAs remain heavily involved in the fossil fuel sector, with support varying substantially across technologies, value chain stages, and countries. Portfolio ‘greening’ is primarily driven by members of the E3F climate club, impacting deal financing structures and shifting finance flows towards high-income countries. Our results call for reconsidering ECA mandates and strengthening international climate-related cooperation in export finance.

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量化公共出口融资从化石燃料向可再生能源的转变
通过提供担保和直接贷款,公共出口信贷机构(ECAs)降低了风险,从而使全球能源项目得以实现。尽管它们对全球温室气体排放途径很重要,但仍需要对eca在低碳能源转型中的作用和融资模式进行系统评估。利用商业交易数据,我们分析了2013年至2023年间31个经合组织和非经合组织国家(不包括加拿大)的eca支持的921笔能源交易。我们发现,虽然可再生能源在全球ECA能源承诺中的份额在2013年至2023年间大幅上升,但ECA仍然大量参与化石燃料行业,其支持在技术、价值链阶段和国家之间存在很大差异。投资组合“绿色化”主要由E3F气候俱乐部成员推动,影响了交易融资结构,并使资金流向高收入国家。我们的研究结果呼吁重新考虑非洲经委会的任务,并在出口融资方面加强与气候有关的国际合作。
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来源期刊
Nature Communications
Nature Communications Biological Science Disciplines-
CiteScore
24.90
自引率
2.40%
发文量
6928
审稿时长
3.7 months
期刊介绍: Nature Communications, an open-access journal, publishes high-quality research spanning all areas of the natural sciences. Papers featured in the journal showcase significant advances relevant to specialists in each respective field. With a 2-year impact factor of 16.6 (2022) and a median time of 8 days from submission to the first editorial decision, Nature Communications is committed to rapid dissemination of research findings. As a multidisciplinary journal, it welcomes contributions from biological, health, physical, chemical, Earth, social, mathematical, applied, and engineering sciences, aiming to highlight important breakthroughs within each domain.
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