Cluster analysis of hepatocellular carcinoma prognosis using preoperative alpha-fetoprotein and des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin levels: a multi-institutional study

Abstract

Background

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains the leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide and is characterized by high recurrence rates after curative resection. The tumor markers des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) are crucial for HCC diagnosis and prognosis. However, their roles in the modern era of HCC epidemiology require reevaluation.

Methods

This multi-institutional retrospective study analyzed 1515 patients who underwent hepatectomy for primary HCC. Patients were classified into 4 clusters using k-means analysis based on preoperative DCP and AFP levels. Clinicopathologic characteristics, overall survival (OS), and recurrence rate (RR) were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) comparisons.

Results

Cluster 3 (concurrent elevations of DCP and AFP) had the poorest 5-year OS (52.8%) and the highest RR (79.3%), whereas cluster 4 (low levels of both markers) had the most favorable outcomes, with a 5-year OS rate of 71.5% and an RR of 55.7%. Cluster 1 (elevated DCP alone) was associated with larger tumors (median of 45 mm) and more frequent vascular invasion (43%) than cluster 2 (elevated AFP alone, median tumor size of 24 mm, and vascular invasion of 36%). DCP was a stronger predictor of 5-year OS in patients with preserved liver function (AUROC, 0.63), whereas AFP was more effective in stratifying RR in patients with impaired liver function (AUROC, 0.57). Non-B, non-C hepatitis (NBNC)-related HCC exhibited a distinct biomarker profile, with an elevated DCP level correlating with a higher 5-year RR (67%) than other etiologies.

Conclusion

Our study introduces tumor marker clustering as a novel analytical approach, providing a nuanced understanding of AFP and DCP’s combined utility in predicting prognosis and recurrence. Our findings highlight the independent and complementary roles of these biomarkers, particularly in NBNC-related HCC and in cases with impaired liver function. AFP and DCP remain crucial tools for recurrence risk assessment, guiding personalized management strategies, such as surveillance, neoadjuvant therapies, and tailored postoperative interventions.