Applicability of the contextual mediated model to predicting road crashes in Ghana and the United Kingdom

Abstract

Models of driver crash risks have been developed in high income countries (e.g., the contextual mediated model). However, the extent to which these models apply to motoring in low and middle income countries, which bear the majority of the world’s road crash fatalities is unknown. We investigate the applicability of a modified contextual mediated model which distinguishes between distal and proximal factors that increase crash liability. The model was applied to 404 UK and 478 Ghanaian motorists to examine the extent to which the processes underlying crash risk are culture specific. Path analyses showed that distal factors (e.g., anxiety, distracted driving susceptibility) predicted crash involvement directly and indirectly through errors, violations and hazard monitoring in both countries. Hazard monitoring was a significant predictor of crash involvement, independent of DBQ factors in both UK and Ghana, highlighting its importance in understanding driver behaviour and crash risk. The findings provide empirical support for the usefulness of the revised contextual mediated model to explain driving behaviour in Ghana as well as the UK.